Intermediate Term Tax Free Bond Fund Market Value
| TWTCX Fund | USD 10.84 0.02 0.18% |
| Symbol | Intermediate-term |
Intermediate-term 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Intermediate-term's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Intermediate-term.
| 06/05/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Intermediate-term on June 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Intermediate Term Tax Free Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Intermediate-term over 180 days. Intermediate-term is related to or competes with Vanguard Intermediate-ter, Vanguard Intermediate-ter, Tax Exempt, Tax Exempt, Tax Exempt, Tax Exempt, and Tax Exempt. The fund primarily invests in investment-grade debt securities and, under normal market conditions, will invest at least... More
Intermediate-term Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Intermediate-term's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Intermediate Term Tax Free Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.2917 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.65) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.12 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2786 |
Intermediate-term Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Intermediate-term's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Intermediate-term's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Intermediate-term historical prices to predict the future Intermediate-term's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.01 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0094 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.44) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.0001) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intermediate-term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intermediate Term Tax Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Intermediate-term Mutual Fund to be very steady. Intermediate Term Tax holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.03, which attests that the entity had a 0.03% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Intermediate Term Tax, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Intermediate-term's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0099, risk adjusted performance of 0.01, and Downside Deviation of 0.2917 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.006%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0735, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Intermediate-term are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Intermediate-term is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.68 |
Very good reverse predictability
Intermediate Term Tax Free Bond has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Intermediate-term time series from 5th of June 2024 to 3rd of September 2024 and 3rd of September 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Intermediate Term Tax price movement. The serial correlation of -0.68 indicates that around 68.0% of current Intermediate-term price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.68 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.73 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Intermediate Term Tax lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Intermediate-term mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Intermediate-term's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Intermediate-term returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Intermediate-term has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Intermediate-term regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Intermediate-term mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Intermediate-term mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Intermediate-term mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Intermediate-term Lagged Returns
When evaluating Intermediate-term's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Intermediate-term mutual fund have on its future price. Intermediate-term autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Intermediate-term autocorrelation shows the relationship between Intermediate-term mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Intermediate Term Tax Free Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Intermediate-term Mutual Fund
Intermediate-term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Intermediate-term Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Intermediate-term with respect to the benefits of owning Intermediate-term security.
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