Union Bank (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| UBCN0000 | LKR 10.60 0.10 0.95% |
| Symbol | Union |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Union Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Union Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Union Bank 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Union Bank's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Union Bank.
| 12/30/2023 |
| 12/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Union Bank on December 30, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Union Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in Union Bank over 360 days. More
Union Bank Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Union Bank's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Union Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1334 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.06) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.37 |
Union Bank Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Union Bank's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Union Bank's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Union Bank historical prices to predict the future Union Bank's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1263 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2516 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2024 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1413 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 5.63 |
Union Bank Backtested Returns
Union Bank appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Union Bank owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.13, which indicates the firm had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Union Bank, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Union Bank's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1263, semi deviation of 1.09, and Coefficient Of Variation of 655.15 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Union Bank holds a performance score of 9. The entity has a beta of 0.0449, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Union Bank's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Union Bank is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Union Bank's standard deviation, total risk alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Union Bank's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.82 |
Very good predictability
Union Bank has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Union Bank time series from 30th of December 2023 to 27th of June 2024 and 27th of June 2024 to 24th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Union Bank price movement. The serial correlation of 0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current Union Bank price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.82 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.24 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.18 |
Union Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Union Bank stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Union Bank's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Union Bank returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Union Bank has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Union Bank regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Union Bank stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Union Bank stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Union Bank stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Union Bank Lagged Returns
When evaluating Union Bank's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Union Bank stock have on its future price. Union Bank autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Union Bank autocorrelation shows the relationship between Union Bank stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Union Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Union Bank financial ratios help investors to determine whether Union Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Union with respect to the benefits of owning Union Bank security.