Swatch (Germany) Market Value
| UHRA Stock | EUR 8.10 0.05 0.61% |
| Symbol | Swatch |
Swatch 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Swatch's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Swatch.
| 11/21/2024 |
| 12/21/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Swatch on November 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Swatch Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Swatch over 30 days. Swatch is related to or competes with LVMH Mot, LVMH Mot, and . The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components world... More
Swatch Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Swatch's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Swatch Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.48 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0124 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.77 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.67 |
Swatch Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Swatch's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Swatch's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Swatch historical prices to predict the future Swatch's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0251 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0654 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0092 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.69) |
Swatch Group Backtested Returns
At this point, Swatch is slightly risky. Swatch Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0432, which indicates the firm had a 0.0432% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for The Swatch Group, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Swatch's Coefficient Of Variation of 4538.14, semi deviation of 2.71, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0251 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. Swatch has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.0915, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Swatch are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Swatch is likely to outperform the market. Swatch Group right now has a risk of 3.32%. Please validate Swatch coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, sortino ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Swatch will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.48 |
Average predictability
The Swatch Group has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Swatch time series from 21st of November 2024 to 6th of December 2024 and 6th of December 2024 to 21st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Swatch Group price movement. The serial correlation of 0.48 indicates that about 48.0% of current Swatch price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.48 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.31 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Swatch Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Swatch stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Swatch's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Swatch returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Swatch has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Swatch regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Swatch stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Swatch stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Swatch stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Swatch Lagged Returns
When evaluating Swatch's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Swatch stock have on its future price. Swatch autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Swatch autocorrelation shows the relationship between Swatch stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Swatch Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Swatch Stock
Swatch financial ratios help investors to determine whether Swatch Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Swatch with respect to the benefits of owning Swatch security.