United Tractors (Indonesia) Market Value
| UNTR Stock | IDR 26,775 600.00 2.19% |
| Symbol | United |
United Tractors 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to United Tractors' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of United Tractors.
| 09/02/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in United Tractors on September 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United Tractors Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in United Tractors over 90 days. United Tractors is related to or competes with Astra International, Bukit Asam, Semen Indonesia, PT Indofood, and Unilever Indonesia. More
United Tractors Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure United Tractors' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess United Tractors Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.1) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.8 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.19) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.22 |
United Tractors Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for United Tractors' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as United Tractors' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use United Tractors historical prices to predict the future United Tractors' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0032 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0153 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.26) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0587 |
United Tractors Tbk Backtested Returns
United Tractors Tbk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0108, which indicates the firm had a -0.0108% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. United Tractors Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate United Tractors' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0032, coefficient of variation of (47,804), and Variance of 2.15 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.22, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning United Tractors are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, United Tractors is likely to outperform the market. At this point, United Tractors Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.0154%. Please make sure to validate United Tractors' maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if United Tractors Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.21 |
Weak reverse predictability
United Tractors Tbk has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United Tractors time series from 2nd of September 2024 to 17th of October 2024 and 17th of October 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United Tractors Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current United Tractors price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.33 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 198.7 K |
United Tractors Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is United Tractors stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting United Tractors' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of United Tractors returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that United Tractors has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
United Tractors regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If United Tractors stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if United Tractors stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in United Tractors stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
United Tractors Lagged Returns
When evaluating United Tractors' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of United Tractors stock have on its future price. United Tractors autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, United Tractors autocorrelation shows the relationship between United Tractors stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in United Tractors Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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United Tractors financial ratios help investors to determine whether United Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in United with respect to the benefits of owning United Tractors security.