Ultrabear Profund Ultrabear Fund Market Value
| URPSX Fund | USD 8.55 0.07 0.83% |
| Symbol | Ultrabear |
Ultrabear Profund 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultrabear Profund's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultrabear Profund.
| 07/20/2023 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultrabear Profund on July 20, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultrabear Profund Ultrabear or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultrabear Profund over 510 days. Ultrabear Profund is related to or competes with Queens Road, Valic Company, Royce Opportunity, Ab Small, Fpa Queens, and Omni Small. The fund invests in financial instruments that the fund Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns ... More
Ultrabear Profund Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultrabear Profund's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultrabear Profund Ultrabear upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.29) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.8 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.89 |
Ultrabear Profund Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultrabear Profund's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultrabear Profund's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultrabear Profund historical prices to predict the future Ultrabear Profund's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.14) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.48) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1839 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultrabear Profund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultrabear Profund Backtested Returns
Ultrabear Profund owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.15, which indicates the fund had a -0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ultrabear Profund Ultrabear exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Ultrabear Profund's Coefficient Of Variation of (510.45), risk adjusted performance of (0.14), and Variance of 1.78 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -1.47, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ultrabear Profund are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Ultrabear Profund is expected to outperform it.
Auto-correlation | 0.65 |
Good predictability
Ultrabear Profund Ultrabear has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultrabear Profund time series from 20th of July 2023 to 31st of March 2024 and 31st of March 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultrabear Profund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Ultrabear Profund price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.65 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.75 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.88 |
Ultrabear Profund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultrabear Profund mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultrabear Profund's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultrabear Profund returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultrabear Profund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultrabear Profund regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultrabear Profund mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultrabear Profund mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultrabear Profund mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultrabear Profund Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultrabear Profund's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultrabear Profund mutual fund have on its future price. Ultrabear Profund autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultrabear Profund autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultrabear Profund mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultrabear Profund Ultrabear.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ultrabear Mutual Fund
Ultrabear Profund financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ultrabear Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ultrabear with respect to the benefits of owning Ultrabear Profund security.
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