Ultra Short Term Bond Fund Market Value
| URUSX Fund | USD 10.08 0.01 0.1% |
| Symbol | Ultra |
Ultra Short 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultra Short's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultra Short.
| 01/02/2023 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultra Short on January 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultra Short Term Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultra Short over 720 days. Ultra Short is related to or competes with Stone Ridge, Jpmorgan Diversified, Global Diversified, Delaware Limited, Guggenheim Diversified, and Fulcrum Diversified. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of the funds assets in investment-grade debt securities that have a dollar... More
Ultra Short Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultra Short's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultra Short Term Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.1061 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.27) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.5977 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.1) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.0993 |
Ultra Short Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultra Short's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultra Short's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultra Short historical prices to predict the future Ultra Short's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0015 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.001) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.22) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.42) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultra Short's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultra Short Term Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Ultra Mutual Fund to be very steady. Ultra Short Term owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.11, which indicates the fund had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for Ultra Short Term Bond, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Ultra Short's Standard Deviation of 0.0851, downside deviation of 0.1061, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0015 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0092%. The entity has a beta of 0.0022, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ultra Short's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ultra Short is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.97 |
Excellent predictability
Ultra Short Term Bond has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultra Short time series from 2nd of January 2023 to 28th of December 2023 and 28th of December 2023 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultra Short Term price movement. The serial correlation of 0.97 indicates that 97.0% of current Ultra Short price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.97 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.99 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
Ultra Short Term lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultra Short mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultra Short's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultra Short returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultra Short has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultra Short regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultra Short mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultra Short mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultra Short mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultra Short Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultra Short's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultra Short mutual fund have on its future price. Ultra Short autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultra Short autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultra Short mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultra Short Term Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ultra Mutual Fund
Ultra Short financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ultra Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ultra with respect to the benefits of owning Ultra Short security.
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