Valero Energy (Mexico) Market Value
| VLO Stock | MXN 2,737 72.74 2.73% |
| Symbol | Valero |
Valero Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Valero Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Valero Energy.
| 12/19/2023 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Valero Energy on December 19, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Valero Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Valero Energy over 360 days. Valero Energy is related to or competes with Disney, Goodyear Tire, Cognizant Technology, and Netflix. Valero Energy Corporation operates as an independent petroleum refining and ethanol producing company in the United Stat... More
Valero Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Valero Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Valero Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.03 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.2 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.51) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.73 |
Valero Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Valero Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Valero Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Valero Energy historical prices to predict the future Valero Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0315 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0406 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6511 |
Valero Energy Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Valero Stock to be very steady. Valero Energy owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0628, which indicates the firm had a 0.0628% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Valero Energy, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Valero Energy's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0315, coefficient of variation of 2801.46, and Semi Deviation of 1.33 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. Valero Energy has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.0739, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Valero Energy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Valero Energy is expected to be smaller as well. Valero Energy right now has a risk of 1.66%. Please validate Valero Energy semi variance, day median price, and the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis , to decide if Valero Energy will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.26 |
Weak reverse predictability
Valero Energy has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Valero Energy time series from 19th of December 2023 to 16th of June 2024 and 16th of June 2024 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Valero Energy price movement. The serial correlation of -0.26 indicates that nearly 26.0% of current Valero Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.26 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 16.8 K |
Valero Energy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Valero Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Valero Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Valero Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Valero Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Valero Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Valero Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Valero Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Valero Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Valero Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Valero Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Valero Energy stock have on its future price. Valero Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Valero Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Valero Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Valero Energy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Valero Stock Analysis
When running Valero Energy's price analysis, check to measure Valero Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valero Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Valero Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valero Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valero Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valero Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.