Deswell Industries Stock Price Prediction
| DSWL Stock | USD 2.67 0.03 1.14% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
50
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.592 | Wall Street Target Price 7.75 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Using Deswell Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Deswell Industries from the perspective of Deswell Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Deswell Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Deswell because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Deswell Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 2.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Deswell |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deswell Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Deswell Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Deswell Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Deswell Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Deswell Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Deswell Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Deswell Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Deswell Industries' historical news coverage. Deswell Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.59 and 4.75, respectively. We have considered Deswell Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Deswell Industries is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Deswell Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Deswell Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Deswell Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Deswell Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Deswell Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 2.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 2 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.67 | 2.67 | 0.00 |
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Deswell Industries Hype Timeline
Deswell Industries is currently traded for 2.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Deswell is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Deswell Industries is about 1619.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.64. About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.43. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Deswell Industries last dividend was issued on the 5th of July 2024. The entity had 3:2 split on the 30th of March 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Deswell Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Deswell Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Deswell Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Deswell Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Deswell Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Deswell Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Deswell Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Deswell price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Deswell using various technical indicators. When you analyze Deswell charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Deswell Industries Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Deswell Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Deswell Industries, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Deswell Industries based on analysis of Deswell Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Deswell Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Deswell Industries's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0546 | 0.0901 | 0.0512 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.68 | 0.51 | 0.48 |
Story Coverage note for Deswell Industries
The number of cover stories for Deswell Industries depends on current market conditions and Deswell Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Deswell Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Deswell Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Deswell Industries Short Properties
Deswell Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Deswell Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Deswell Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Deswell Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Deswell Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 57.9 M |
Check out Deswell Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Deswell Stock please use our How to buy in Deswell Stock guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Deswell Industries. If investors know Deswell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Deswell Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.592 | Earnings Share 0.65 | Revenue Per Share 4.353 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets 0.0219 |
The market value of Deswell Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Deswell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Deswell Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Deswell Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Deswell Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Deswell Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Deswell Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Deswell Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Deswell Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.