Mercer International Stock Price Prediction
| MERC Stock | USD 6.17 0.04 0.64% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.73) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.66) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.20) | Wall Street Target Price 7.125 |
Using Mercer International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercer International from the perspective of Mercer International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Mercer International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Mercer because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Mercer International after-hype prediction price | USD 6.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Mercer |
Mercer International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mercer International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mercer International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mercer International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mercer International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mercer International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mercer International's historical news coverage. Mercer International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.08 and 9.28, respectively. We have considered Mercer International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mercer International is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mercer International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mercer International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mercer International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mercer International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mercer International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 3.10 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 9 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.17 | 6.18 | 0.16 |
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Mercer International Hype Timeline
Mercer International is now traded for 6.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Mercer is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.18 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Mercer International is about 713.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.10. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.99 B. Net Loss for the year was (242.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 642.26 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Mercer International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Mercer International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mercer International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mercer International's future price movements. Getting to know how Mercer International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mercer International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GLT | Glatfelter | 0.13 | 9 per month | 3.06 | 0.01 | 5.95 | (4.84) | 24.19 | |
| SLVM | Sylvamo Corp | (4.19) | 7 per month | 2.61 | 0.07 | 3.51 | (3.98) | 15.67 | |
| SUZ | Suzano Papel e | 0.09 | 5 per month | 1.28 | (0.06) | 2.53 | (2.03) | 8.05 | |
| UPMMY | UPM Kymmene Oyj | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.37 | (3.05) | 6.61 | |
| CLW | Clearwater Paper | (0.81) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.63 | (3.93) | 15.00 | |
| KLBAY | Klabin Sa A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.85 | (4.84) | 15.74 | |
| MONDY | Mondi PLC ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.76 | (3.33) | 11.30 | |
| HLMNY | Holmen AB ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.12 | |
| CFPUF | Canfor Pulp Products | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.25 | (0.0007) | 7.69 | (5.48) | 27.68 | |
| SPPJY | Sappi Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.39 | 0.01 | 11.76 | (5.43) | 21.98 | |
| NDGPY | Nine Dragons Paper | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.43 | 0.03 | 9.94 | (5.38) | 52.82 |
Mercer International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Mercer International Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Mercer International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Mercer International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Mercer International based on analysis of Mercer International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Mercer International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Mercer International's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0217 | 0.0258 | 0.0317 | 0.0203 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.44 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.3 |
Story Coverage note for Mercer International
The number of cover stories for Mercer International depends on current market conditions and Mercer International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mercer International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mercer International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mercer International Short Properties
Mercer International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mercer International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mercer International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mercer International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercer International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 314 M |
Complementary Tools for Mercer Stock analysis
When running Mercer International's price analysis, check to measure Mercer International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercer International is operating at the current time. Most of Mercer International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercer International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercer International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercer International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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