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Is Maxeon Solar (USA Stocks:MAXN) roll up reliable given recent volatility?

November 1, 2024  By
Maxeon Solar Technologies (NASDAQ: MAXN) offers intriguing trading opportunities due to its high volatility, with a standard deviation of **11.95**, indicating significant price fluctuations. Despite a maximum drawdown of **77.68**, the stock's potential upside of **15.82** suggests that investors could capitalize on its dynamic price movements.

Key Arguments

Maxeon Solar Technologies has liabilities totaling $437.66 million and a Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.43, indicating a strong reliance on borrowed funds for operations. The company maintains a current ratio of 1.32, which is considered healthy for its industry. It's crucial to assess Maxeon's debt alongside its cash and equity. With a Beta of 3.13, the stock is significantly more volatile than the market. This means it could outperform when the market rises but may also fall harder when the market declines. Currently, Maxeon Solar carries a risk level of 11.99%. Consider examining the company's potential upside and daily rate of change to better understand its future price movements.
Published over a month ago
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Reviewed by Gabriel Shpitalnik

Maxeon Solar Technologies, trading under the ticker MAXN on NASDAQ, is currently a hotbed of trading activity, offering both risks and rewards due to its ongoing volatility. With a daily balance of power at 0.28 and a rate of daily change at 1.07, the stock exhibits significant price fluctuations that can be enticing for traders looking to capitalize on short-term movements. Analysts have set a range of target prices, with the highest at $21.11 and the lowest at $17.31, reflecting varied expectations about the company's future performance. Despite the excitement, the overall analyst consensus remains a "Hold," suggesting that while there are opportunities, investors should proceed with caution. The stock's valuation metrics, such as a real value of $11.57 compared to its market value of $9.23, indicate potential undervaluation, yet the accumulation distribution of 621.3K hints at mixed investor sentiment. As Maxeon navigates the semiconductor equipment sector, its dynamic trading environment demands a keen eye and strategic approach. Maxeon Solar is currently offering a daily expected return of 0.0469% with a risk level (volatility) of 11.9867% over the next 90 days. While some conservative investors remain unfazed by recent market risks, it's wise to consider Maxeon Solar's current volatility. What should shareholders anticipate in December? Recent risk factors could affect the stock's value, and we believe Maxeon Solar is undervalued at the moment. We estimate its true value to be nearing $11.57 per share.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Maxeon Solar or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Maxeon Solar may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Maxeon's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Maxeon Solar and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Maxeon Solar fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Maxeon Solar's Liquidity

Maxeon Solar financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Maxeon Solar Technologies ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Maxeon Solar financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Maxeon Solar's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Maxeon Solar's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Maxeon Solar's total debt and its cash.

How does Maxeon utilize its cash?

Maxeon Solar reported last year Change In Working Capital of (171.63 Million). To perform a cash flow analysis of Maxeon Solar, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Maxeon Solar is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Maxeon Solar cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.

Maxeon Solar Gross Profit

Maxeon Solar Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Maxeon Solar previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Maxeon Solar Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Maxeon Solar's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Maxeon Solar Volatility Drivers

Maxeon Solar unsystematic risk is unique to Maxeon Solar Technologies and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Maxeon Solar you can also buy Sunrun Inc. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the information technology sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Maxeon Solar important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Maxeon Solar income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Maxeon volatility.
0.780.86-0.6
0.780.91-0.85
0.860.91-0.72
-0.6-0.85-0.72
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Details

The recent indifference towards the small price fluctuations of Maxeon Solar Technologies may encourage investors to take a closer look at the firm as it is trading at a share price of 9.23 on 2,938,344 in trading volume. The company executives did not add any value to Maxeon Solar Technologies investors in October. However, most investors can still diversify their portfolios with Maxeon Solar Technologies to hedge their inherited risk against high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 11.99.
The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Maxeon Solar Technologies partners.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Interest Expense27.8M27.8M42.4M33.3M
Depreciation And Amortization42.2M56.7M55.9M44.8M
"Volatility is the price you pay for performance," and Maxeon Solar Technologies (NASDAQ: MAXN) exemplifies this with its dynamic trading landscape. With a beta of 1.42, the stock experiences significant price swings, offering both risk and opportunity for investors. Despite a challenging financial backdrop, including a return on equity showing losses of 2.9, the company maintains a robust insider ownership of 70.28%, suggesting confidence from those closest to the company's operations. For traders seeking to capitalize on short-term movements, the high standard deviation of 11.95 highlights the potential for substantial gains or losses..

Will Maxeon Solar growth be reasonable after the roll up?

Maxeon Solar Technologies is currently navigating a tough phase, with its Jensen Alpha dropping to -0.42. This suggests the stock isn't meeting expected returns when considering its risk level. Such a dip prompts concerns about the company's growth potential, especially after its recent roll-up strategy. Investors are closely monitoring whether Maxeon's strategic decisions will lead to sustainable growth or if the underperformance hints at deeper issues. As the company maneuvers through these challenges, potential investors should carefully assess the risks and determine if the expected growth justifies the current performance metrics.
Additionally, Maxeon Solar is experiencing higher-than-average volatility, which can significantly affect its stock price, particularly in bear markets, prompting investors to reconsider their portfolio strategies.Maxeon Solar Technologies has shown impressive resilience by advancing significantly even as the broader market faced a downturn. This performance might catch the eye of investors looking for robust opportunities in the renewable energy sector. However, it's important to weigh this momentum against the analyst consensus, which currently suggests a "Hold" position, with an estimated target price of $19.02. While the stock's upward movement is encouraging, potential investors should consider these expert insights and the company's valuation metrics before making any decisions. With a valuation market value of 9.23 and a real value of 11.57, Maxeon Solar presents a mixed picture that warrants careful consideration..

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Editorial Staff

Rifka Kats is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Rifka writes about retail product and service companies from the perspective of a regular consumer and sophisticated investor at the same time. She is passionate about corporate ethics and equality in the workforce. View Profile
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