Korean Air Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

003495 Stock   23,250  250.00  1.09%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Korean Air Lines on the next trading day is expected to be 23,025 with a mean absolute deviation of 192.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11,188. Korean Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Korean Air stock prices and determine the direction of Korean Air Lines's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Korean Air's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Korean Air Lines is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Korean Air 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Korean Air Lines on the next trading day is expected to be 23,025 with a mean absolute deviation of 192.89, mean absolute percentage error of 93,882, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11,188.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Korean Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Korean Air's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Korean Air Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Korean AirKorean Air Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Korean Air Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Korean Air's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Korean Air's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23,024 and 23,026, respectively. We have considered Korean Air's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
23,250
23,024
Downside
23,025
Expected Value
23,026
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Korean Air stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Korean Air stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.0467
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -10.5603
MADMean absolute deviation192.8879
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0082
SAESum of the absolute errors11187.5
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Korean Air. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Korean Air Lines and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Korean Air

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Korean Air Lines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23,24923,25023,251
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22,54722,54825,575
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
22,64923,88625,122
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Korean Air. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Korean Air's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Korean Air's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Korean Air Lines.

Other Forecasting Options for Korean Air

For every potential investor in Korean, whether a beginner or expert, Korean Air's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Korean Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Korean. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Korean Air's price trends.

Korean Air Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Korean Air stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Korean Air could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Korean Air by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Korean Air Lines Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Korean Air's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Korean Air's current price.

Korean Air Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Korean Air stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Korean Air shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Korean Air stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Korean Air Lines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Korean Air Risk Indicators

The analysis of Korean Air's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Korean Air's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting korean stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Korean Air

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Korean Air position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Korean Air will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Korean Stock

  0.83272450 Jin AirPairCorr

Moving against Korean Stock

  0.67005930 Samsung ElectronicsPairCorr
  0.63005935 Samsung ElectronicsPairCorr
  0.59005490 POSCO HoldingsPairCorr
  0.59005385 Hyundai MotorPairCorr
  0.54005380 Hyundai MotorPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Korean Air could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Korean Air when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Korean Air - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Korean Air Lines to buy it.
The correlation of Korean Air is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Korean Air moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Korean Air Lines moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Korean Air can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Korean Stock

Korean Air financial ratios help investors to determine whether Korean Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Korean with respect to the benefits of owning Korean Air security.