Cofina SGPS Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 112 Stock | 30.60 0.70 2.34% |
Cofina |
Cofina SGPS Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cofina SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 30.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cofina Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cofina SGPS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cofina SGPS Stock Forecast Pattern
Cofina SGPS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cofina SGPS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cofina SGPS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.23 and 32.97, respectively. We have considered Cofina SGPS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cofina SGPS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cofina SGPS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.435 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0817 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4583 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.5 |
Predictive Modules for Cofina SGPS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cofina SGPS SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cofina SGPS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Cofina SGPS
For every potential investor in Cofina, whether a beginner or expert, Cofina SGPS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cofina Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cofina. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cofina SGPS's price trends.Cofina SGPS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cofina SGPS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cofina SGPS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cofina SGPS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cofina SGPS SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cofina SGPS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cofina SGPS's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cofina SGPS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cofina SGPS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cofina SGPS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cofina SGPS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cofina SGPS SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cofina SGPS Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cofina SGPS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cofina SGPS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cofina stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Cofina Stock Analysis
When running Cofina SGPS's price analysis, check to measure Cofina SGPS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cofina SGPS is operating at the current time. Most of Cofina SGPS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cofina SGPS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cofina SGPS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cofina SGPS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.