Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

1NBA Stock  EUR 48.04  0.23  0.48%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Anheuser Busch InBev SANV on the next trading day is expected to be 47.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.99. Anheuser-Busch Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Anheuser-Busch InBev's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Anheuser-Busch InBev - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Anheuser-Busch InBev prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Anheuser-Busch InBev price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Anheuser Busch InBev.

Anheuser-Busch InBev Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Anheuser Busch InBev SANV on the next trading day is expected to be 47.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Anheuser-Busch Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Anheuser-Busch InBev's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock Forecast Pattern

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Anheuser-Busch InBev Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Anheuser-Busch InBev's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Anheuser-Busch InBev's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.37 and 48.99, respectively. We have considered Anheuser-Busch InBev's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
48.04
47.68
Expected Value
48.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Anheuser-Busch InBev stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Anheuser-Busch InBev stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1077
MADMean absolute deviation0.5761
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0106
SAESum of the absolute errors33.9925
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Anheuser-Busch InBev observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Anheuser Busch InBev SANV observations.

Predictive Modules for Anheuser-Busch InBev

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anheuser Busch InBev. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
46.7348.0449.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
42.4143.7252.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Anheuser-Busch InBev. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Anheuser-Busch InBev's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Anheuser-Busch InBev's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Anheuser Busch InBev.

Other Forecasting Options for Anheuser-Busch InBev

For every potential investor in Anheuser-Busch, whether a beginner or expert, Anheuser-Busch InBev's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Anheuser-Busch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Anheuser-Busch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Anheuser-Busch InBev's price trends.

Anheuser-Busch InBev Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Anheuser-Busch InBev stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Anheuser-Busch InBev could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Anheuser-Busch InBev by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Anheuser Busch InBev Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Anheuser-Busch InBev's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Anheuser-Busch InBev's current price.

Anheuser-Busch InBev Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Anheuser-Busch InBev stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Anheuser-Busch InBev shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Anheuser-Busch InBev stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Anheuser Busch InBev SANV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Anheuser-Busch InBev Risk Indicators

The analysis of Anheuser-Busch InBev's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Anheuser-Busch InBev's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting anheuser-busch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Anheuser-Busch Stock

Anheuser-Busch InBev financial ratios help investors to determine whether Anheuser-Busch Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Anheuser-Busch with respect to the benefits of owning Anheuser-Busch InBev security.