Genolution Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

225220 Stock  KRW 2,245  55.00  2.39%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genolution on the next trading day is expected to be 2,242 with a mean absolute deviation of 53.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,218. Genolution Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genolution stock prices and determine the direction of Genolution's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Genolution's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Genolution works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Genolution Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genolution on the next trading day is expected to be 2,242 with a mean absolute deviation of 53.63, mean absolute percentage error of 4,552, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,218.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genolution Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genolution's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Genolution Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GenolutionGenolution Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Genolution Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Genolution's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genolution's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,239 and 2,244, respectively. We have considered Genolution's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2,245
2,242
Expected Value
2,244
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genolution stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genolution stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -9.2046
MADMean absolute deviation53.6304
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0213
SAESum of the absolute errors3217.8247
When Genolution prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Genolution trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Genolution observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Genolution

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genolution. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,2432,2452,247
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2,0202,4542,456
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Genolution. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Genolution's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Genolution's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Genolution.

Other Forecasting Options for Genolution

For every potential investor in Genolution, whether a beginner or expert, Genolution's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genolution Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genolution. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genolution's price trends.

Genolution Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genolution stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genolution could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genolution by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Genolution Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genolution's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genolution's current price.

Genolution Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genolution stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genolution shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genolution stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genolution entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Genolution Risk Indicators

The analysis of Genolution's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genolution's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genolution stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Genolution

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Genolution position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Genolution will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Genolution Stock

  0.71278650 KNOTUS CoLtdPairCorr
  0.66288330 Bridge BiotherapeuticsPairCorr
  0.88293780 AptaBio TherapeuticsPairCorr
  0.65217330 CytogenPairCorr

Moving against Genolution Stock

  0.93035420 NaverPairCorr
  0.85041510 SM EntertainmentPairCorr
  0.82032640 LG UplusPairCorr
  0.77078160 MEDIPOSTPairCorr
  0.72011390 Busan IndustrialPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Genolution could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Genolution when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Genolution - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Genolution to buy it.
The correlation of Genolution is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Genolution moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Genolution moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Genolution can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Genolution Stock

Genolution financial ratios help investors to determine whether Genolution Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Genolution with respect to the benefits of owning Genolution security.