CMC Magnetics Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

2323 Stock  TWD 11.45  0.05  0.44%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CMC Magnetics Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.21. CMC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for CMC Magnetics Corp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

CMC Magnetics 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CMC Magnetics Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CMC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CMC Magnetics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CMC Magnetics Stock Forecast Pattern

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CMC Magnetics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CMC Magnetics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CMC Magnetics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.03 and 12.74, respectively. We have considered CMC Magnetics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.45
11.39
Expected Value
12.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CMC Magnetics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CMC Magnetics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.6498
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0033
MADMean absolute deviation0.1616
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0136
SAESum of the absolute errors9.2125
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of CMC Magnetics. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for CMC Magnetics Corp and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for CMC Magnetics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CMC Magnetics Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.0911.4512.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.3011.6613.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.3511.5311.72
Details

Other Forecasting Options for CMC Magnetics

For every potential investor in CMC, whether a beginner or expert, CMC Magnetics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CMC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CMC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CMC Magnetics' price trends.

CMC Magnetics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CMC Magnetics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CMC Magnetics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CMC Magnetics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CMC Magnetics Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CMC Magnetics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CMC Magnetics' current price.

CMC Magnetics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CMC Magnetics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CMC Magnetics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CMC Magnetics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CMC Magnetics Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CMC Magnetics Risk Indicators

The analysis of CMC Magnetics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CMC Magnetics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cmc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for CMC Stock Analysis

When running CMC Magnetics' price analysis, check to measure CMC Magnetics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CMC Magnetics is operating at the current time. Most of CMC Magnetics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CMC Magnetics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CMC Magnetics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CMC Magnetics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.