Medtronic PLC Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

2M6 Stock  EUR 78.20  1.10  1.43%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Medtronic PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 78.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.21. Medtronic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Medtronic PLC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Medtronic PLC - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Medtronic PLC prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Medtronic PLC price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Medtronic PLC.

Medtronic PLC Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Medtronic PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 78.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medtronic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medtronic PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Medtronic PLC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Medtronic PLCMedtronic PLC Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Medtronic PLC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Medtronic PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medtronic PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.06 and 79.04, respectively. We have considered Medtronic PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
78.20
78.05
Expected Value
79.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medtronic PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medtronic PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0587
MADMean absolute deviation0.6476
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0079
SAESum of the absolute errors38.2071
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Medtronic PLC observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Medtronic PLC observations.

Predictive Modules for Medtronic PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medtronic PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
77.2078.2079.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
70.3879.5280.52
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Medtronic PLC

For every potential investor in Medtronic, whether a beginner or expert, Medtronic PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medtronic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medtronic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medtronic PLC's price trends.

Medtronic PLC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medtronic PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medtronic PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medtronic PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Medtronic PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Medtronic PLC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Medtronic PLC's current price.

Medtronic PLC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medtronic PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medtronic PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medtronic PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Medtronic PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Medtronic PLC Risk Indicators

The analysis of Medtronic PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medtronic PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medtronic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Medtronic Stock

When determining whether Medtronic PLC is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Medtronic Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Medtronic Plc Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Medtronic Plc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medtronic PLC to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Medtronic Stock please use our How to Invest in Medtronic PLC guide.
You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Medtronic PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Medtronic PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Medtronic PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.