Guangdong Jinma Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

300756 Stock   16.71  0.14  0.83%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guangdong Jinma Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 16.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.65. Guangdong Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guangdong Jinma stock prices and determine the direction of Guangdong Jinma Entertainment's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Guangdong Jinma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Guangdong Jinma's Total Current Liabilities is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Other Liabilities is expected to grow to about 80.4 M, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 1.8 B.
A naive forecasting model for Guangdong Jinma is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Guangdong Jinma Entertainment value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Guangdong Jinma Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guangdong Jinma Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 16.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guangdong Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guangdong Jinma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guangdong Jinma Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Guangdong JinmaGuangdong Jinma Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Guangdong Jinma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Guangdong Jinma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guangdong Jinma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.51 and 21.36, respectively. We have considered Guangdong Jinma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.71
16.94
Expected Value
21.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guangdong Jinma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guangdong Jinma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2898
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4534
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0313
SAESum of the absolute errors27.6545
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Guangdong Jinma Entertainment. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Guangdong Jinma. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Guangdong Jinma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guangdong Jinma Ente. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.3617.7822.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.3115.7320.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.4016.5017.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guangdong Jinma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guangdong Jinma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guangdong Jinma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Guangdong Jinma Ente.

Other Forecasting Options for Guangdong Jinma

For every potential investor in Guangdong, whether a beginner or expert, Guangdong Jinma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guangdong Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guangdong. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guangdong Jinma's price trends.

Guangdong Jinma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guangdong Jinma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guangdong Jinma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guangdong Jinma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Guangdong Jinma Ente Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guangdong Jinma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guangdong Jinma's current price.

Guangdong Jinma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guangdong Jinma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guangdong Jinma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guangdong Jinma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Guangdong Jinma Entertainment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Guangdong Jinma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guangdong Jinma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guangdong Jinma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guangdong stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Guangdong Stock

Guangdong Jinma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guangdong Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guangdong with respect to the benefits of owning Guangdong Jinma security.