Sunfon Construction Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

5514 Stock  TWD 20.30  0.55  2.64%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sunfon Construction Co on the next trading day is expected to be 20.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.74. Sunfon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Sunfon Construction polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Sunfon Construction Co as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Sunfon Construction Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sunfon Construction Co on the next trading day is expected to be 20.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sunfon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sunfon Construction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sunfon Construction Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sunfon ConstructionSunfon Construction Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Sunfon Construction Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sunfon Construction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sunfon Construction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.41 and 21.83, respectively. We have considered Sunfon Construction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.30
20.62
Expected Value
21.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sunfon Construction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sunfon Construction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9135
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1596
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0075
SAESum of the absolute errors9.7377
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Sunfon Construction historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Sunfon Construction

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sunfon Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.0920.3021.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.3818.5922.33
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.1620.5420.92
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Sunfon Construction

For every potential investor in Sunfon, whether a beginner or expert, Sunfon Construction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sunfon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sunfon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sunfon Construction's price trends.

Sunfon Construction Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sunfon Construction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sunfon Construction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sunfon Construction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sunfon Construction Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sunfon Construction's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sunfon Construction's current price.

Sunfon Construction Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sunfon Construction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sunfon Construction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sunfon Construction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sunfon Construction Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sunfon Construction Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sunfon Construction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sunfon Construction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sunfon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Sunfon Construction

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Sunfon Construction position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Sunfon Construction will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Sunfon Stock

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Moving against Sunfon Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Sunfon Construction could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Sunfon Construction when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Sunfon Construction - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Sunfon Construction Co to buy it.
The correlation of Sunfon Construction is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Sunfon Construction moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Sunfon Construction moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Sunfon Construction can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Sunfon Stock Analysis

When running Sunfon Construction's price analysis, check to measure Sunfon Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sunfon Construction is operating at the current time. Most of Sunfon Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sunfon Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sunfon Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sunfon Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.