Yunnan Bowin Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

600883 Stock   7.64  0.07  0.91%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Yunnan Bowin Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 8.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.87. Yunnan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Yunnan Bowin stock prices and determine the direction of Yunnan Bowin Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Yunnan Bowin's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Yunnan Bowin's Total Current Liabilities is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Retained Earnings is expected to grow to about 471.6 M, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 688.5 M.
A naive forecasting model for Yunnan Bowin is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Yunnan Bowin Technology value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Yunnan Bowin Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Yunnan Bowin Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 8.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yunnan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yunnan Bowin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Yunnan Bowin Stock Forecast Pattern

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Yunnan Bowin Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Yunnan Bowin's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yunnan Bowin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.81 and 11.19, respectively. We have considered Yunnan Bowin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.64
8.00
Expected Value
11.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yunnan Bowin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yunnan Bowin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.7465
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1454
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0219
SAESum of the absolute errors8.8685
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Yunnan Bowin Technology. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Yunnan Bowin. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Yunnan Bowin

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yunnan Bowin Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.457.6410.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.897.0810.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Yunnan Bowin. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Yunnan Bowin's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Yunnan Bowin's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Yunnan Bowin Technology.

Other Forecasting Options for Yunnan Bowin

For every potential investor in Yunnan, whether a beginner or expert, Yunnan Bowin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yunnan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yunnan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yunnan Bowin's price trends.

Yunnan Bowin Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yunnan Bowin stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yunnan Bowin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yunnan Bowin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Yunnan Bowin Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Yunnan Bowin's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Yunnan Bowin's current price.

Yunnan Bowin Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yunnan Bowin stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yunnan Bowin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yunnan Bowin stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yunnan Bowin Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Yunnan Bowin Risk Indicators

The analysis of Yunnan Bowin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yunnan Bowin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yunnan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Yunnan Stock

Yunnan Bowin financial ratios help investors to determine whether Yunnan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Yunnan with respect to the benefits of owning Yunnan Bowin security.