China International Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

601888 Stock   70.07  1.56  2.18%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China International Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 70.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.50. China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China International stock prices and determine the direction of China International Travel's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of China International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, China International's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Stockholder Equity is expected to grow to about 56.5 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 68.9 M.
China International simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for China International Travel are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as China International prices get older.

China International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China International Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 70.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64, mean absolute percentage error of 6.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China International Stock Forecast Pattern

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China International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.42 and 73.72, respectively. We have considered China International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
70.07
70.07
Expected Value
73.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.1181
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1857
MADMean absolute deviation1.6417
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0235
SAESum of the absolute errors98.5
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting China International Travel forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent China International observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for China International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
67.9871.6375.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
66.8370.4874.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
68.9070.4371.95
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China International.

Other Forecasting Options for China International

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China International's price trends.

China International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China International's current price.

China International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China International Travel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

China International Risk Indicators

The analysis of China International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in China Stock

China International financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China International security.