FIRST NATIONAL Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

63Z Stock  EUR 26.20  0.40  1.50%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of FIRST NATIONAL FIN on the next trading day is expected to be 28.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.72. FIRST Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FIRST NATIONAL's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through FIRST NATIONAL price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

FIRST NATIONAL Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of FIRST NATIONAL FIN on the next trading day is expected to be 28.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIRST Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIRST NATIONAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FIRST NATIONAL Stock Forecast Pattern

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FIRST NATIONAL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FIRST NATIONAL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FIRST NATIONAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.49 and 30.62, respectively. We have considered FIRST NATIONAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.20
28.56
Expected Value
30.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIRST NATIONAL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIRST NATIONAL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.1976
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.931
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.034
SAESum of the absolute errors57.7204
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as FIRST NATIONAL FIN historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for FIRST NATIONAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FIRST NATIONAL FIN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.1426.2028.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.8426.9028.96
Details

Other Forecasting Options for FIRST NATIONAL

For every potential investor in FIRST, whether a beginner or expert, FIRST NATIONAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FIRST Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FIRST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FIRST NATIONAL's price trends.

FIRST NATIONAL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FIRST NATIONAL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FIRST NATIONAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FIRST NATIONAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FIRST NATIONAL FIN Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FIRST NATIONAL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FIRST NATIONAL's current price.

FIRST NATIONAL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FIRST NATIONAL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FIRST NATIONAL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FIRST NATIONAL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FIRST NATIONAL FIN entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FIRST NATIONAL Risk Indicators

The analysis of FIRST NATIONAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FIRST NATIONAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in FIRST Stock

FIRST NATIONAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether FIRST Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FIRST with respect to the benefits of owning FIRST NATIONAL security.