Absa Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ABG Stock   19,678  51.00  0.26%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Absa Group on the next trading day is expected to be 19,846 with a mean absolute deviation of 172.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10,207. Absa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Absa stock prices and determine the direction of Absa Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Absa's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Absa - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Absa prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Absa price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Absa Group.

Absa Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Absa Group on the next trading day is expected to be 19,846 with a mean absolute deviation of 172.99, mean absolute percentage error of 63,389, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10,207.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Absa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Absa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Absa Stock Forecast Pattern

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Absa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Absa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Absa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19,845 and 19,847, respectively. We have considered Absa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19,678
19,845
Downside
19,846
Expected Value
19,847
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Absa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Absa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -48.4128
MADMean absolute deviation172.9935
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0098
SAESum of the absolute errors10206.6191
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Absa observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Absa Group observations.

Predictive Modules for Absa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Absa Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19,62619,62719,628
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18,16618,16721,590
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15,60617,81620,026
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Absa

For every potential investor in Absa, whether a beginner or expert, Absa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Absa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Absa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Absa's price trends.

Absa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Absa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Absa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Absa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Absa Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Absa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Absa's current price.

Absa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Absa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Absa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Absa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Absa Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Absa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Absa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Absa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting absa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Absa Stock

Absa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Absa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Absa with respect to the benefits of owning Absa security.