Arbor Realty Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ABR Stock | USD 14.67 0.13 0.88% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arbor Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 14.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.61. Arbor Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Arbor Realty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Arbor Realty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arbor Realty fundamentals over time.
Arbor |
Open Interest Against 2024-11-29 Arbor Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arbor Realty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arbor Realty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arbor Realty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arbor Realty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Arbor Realty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arbor Realty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arbor. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Arbor Realty Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arbor Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 14.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arbor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arbor Realty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arbor Realty Stock Forecast Pattern
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Arbor Realty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arbor Realty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arbor Realty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.29 and 16.08, respectively. We have considered Arbor Realty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arbor Realty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arbor Realty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0247 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1628 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.6069 |
Predictive Modules for Arbor Realty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arbor Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Arbor Realty
For every potential investor in Arbor, whether a beginner or expert, Arbor Realty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arbor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arbor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arbor Realty's price trends.Arbor Realty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arbor Realty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arbor Realty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arbor Realty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arbor Realty Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arbor Realty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arbor Realty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Arbor Realty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arbor Realty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arbor Realty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arbor Realty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arbor Realty Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arbor Realty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arbor Realty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arbor Realty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arbor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Additional Tools for Arbor Stock Analysis
When running Arbor Realty's price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.