AGF American Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for AGF American - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When AGF American prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in AGF American price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of AGF American Growth.

AGF American Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AGF American Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 72.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.26.

AGF American Fund Forecast Pattern

AGF American Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AGF American fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AGF American fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past AGF American observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older AGF American Growth observations.

Predictive Modules for AGF American

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGF American Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for AGF American

For every potential investor in AGF, whether a beginner or expert, AGF American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AGF Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AGF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AGF American's price trends.

AGF American Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

AGF American Growth Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AGF American's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AGF American's current price.

AGF American Market Strength Events

AGF American Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with AGF American

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AGF American position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AGF American will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.