AHOLD DELHAIADR16 Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AHOD Stock  EUR 32.00  0.20  0.62%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AHOLD DELHAIADR16 EO 25 on the next trading day is expected to be 32.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.80. AHOLD Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AHOLD DELHAIADR16's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
AHOLD DELHAIADR16 simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for AHOLD DELHAIADR16 EO 25 are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as AHOLD DELHAIADR16 prices get older.

AHOLD DELHAIADR16 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AHOLD DELHAIADR16 EO 25 on the next trading day is expected to be 32.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AHOLD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AHOLD DELHAIADR16's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AHOLD DELHAIADR16 Stock Forecast Pattern

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AHOLD DELHAIADR16 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AHOLD DELHAIADR16's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AHOLD DELHAIADR16's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.00 and 32.99, respectively. We have considered AHOLD DELHAIADR16's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.00
32.00
Expected Value
32.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AHOLD DELHAIADR16 stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AHOLD DELHAIADR16 stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.9292
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.02
MADMean absolute deviation0.2133
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0069
SAESum of the absolute errors12.8
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting AHOLD DELHAIADR16 EO 25 forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent AHOLD DELHAIADR16 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for AHOLD DELHAIADR16

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AHOLD DELHAIADR16. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AHOLD DELHAIADR16's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.0032.0033.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.4531.4532.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.6731.8632.05
Details

Other Forecasting Options for AHOLD DELHAIADR16

For every potential investor in AHOLD, whether a beginner or expert, AHOLD DELHAIADR16's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AHOLD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AHOLD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AHOLD DELHAIADR16's price trends.

AHOLD DELHAIADR16 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AHOLD DELHAIADR16 stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AHOLD DELHAIADR16 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AHOLD DELHAIADR16 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AHOLD DELHAIADR16 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AHOLD DELHAIADR16's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AHOLD DELHAIADR16's current price.

AHOLD DELHAIADR16 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AHOLD DELHAIADR16 stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AHOLD DELHAIADR16 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AHOLD DELHAIADR16 stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AHOLD DELHAIADR16 EO 25 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AHOLD DELHAIADR16 Risk Indicators

The analysis of AHOLD DELHAIADR16's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AHOLD DELHAIADR16's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ahold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in AHOLD Stock

AHOLD DELHAIADR16 financial ratios help investors to determine whether AHOLD Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AHOLD with respect to the benefits of owning AHOLD DELHAIADR16 security.