Alfen Beheer Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ALFEN Stock | EUR 11.82 0.24 1.99% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alfen Beheer BV on the next trading day is expected to be 11.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.69. Alfen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alfen Beheer stock prices and determine the direction of Alfen Beheer BV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alfen Beheer's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Alfen Beheer Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alfen Beheer BV on the next trading day is expected to be 11.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alfen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alfen Beheer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alfen Beheer Stock Forecast Pattern
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Alfen Beheer Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alfen Beheer's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alfen Beheer's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.69 and 16.04, respectively. We have considered Alfen Beheer's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alfen Beheer stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alfen Beheer stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6271 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0167 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3556 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0287 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.6926 |
Predictive Modules for Alfen Beheer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alfen Beheer BV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alfen Beheer
For every potential investor in Alfen, whether a beginner or expert, Alfen Beheer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alfen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alfen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alfen Beheer's price trends.Alfen Beheer Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alfen Beheer stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alfen Beheer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alfen Beheer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alfen Beheer BV Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alfen Beheer's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alfen Beheer's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Alfen Beheer Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alfen Beheer stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alfen Beheer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alfen Beheer stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alfen Beheer BV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7638.77 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.55) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.04 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.97 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.24) |
Alfen Beheer Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alfen Beheer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alfen Beheer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alfen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.13 | |||
| Variance | 17.07 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Alfen Stock
Alfen Beheer financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alfen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alfen with respect to the benefits of owning Alfen Beheer security.