Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ARQT Stock | USD 11.71 0.20 1.74% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.42. Arcutis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Arcutis |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Arcutis Biotherapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-12-31 | Previous Quarter 84.9 M | Current Value 134.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 64.4 M |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcutis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcutis Biotherapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arcutis Biotherapeutics | Arcutis Biotherapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arcutis Biotherapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arcutis Biotherapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.98 and 15.08, respectively. We have considered Arcutis Biotherapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7766 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4332 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0448 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.4246 |
Predictive Modules for Arcutis Biotherapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcutis Biotherapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Arcutis Biotherapeutics
For every potential investor in Arcutis, whether a beginner or expert, Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arcutis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arcutis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price trends.View Arcutis Biotherapeutics Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arcutis Biotherapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arcutis Biotherapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arcutis Biotherapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcutis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.52 | |||
| Variance | 12.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Additional Tools for Arcutis Stock Analysis
When running Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Arcutis Biotherapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcutis Biotherapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcutis Biotherapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.