American Express Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for American Express - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When American Express prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in American Express price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of American Express.

American Express Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 305.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.89, mean absolute percentage error of 28.97, and the sum of the absolute errors of 229.33.

American Express Stock Forecast Pattern

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American Express Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past American Express observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American Express observations.

Predictive Modules for American Express

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 303.43 305.14 306.85 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 265.97 267.68 334.68 Details

28 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 166.02 182.44 202.51 Details

Earnings Estimates (0) Low Projected EPS High 3.32 3.48 3.55 Details

Other Forecasting Options for American Express

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Express' price trends.

American Express Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

American Express Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Express' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Express' current price.

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American Express Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with American Express

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Express position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Express will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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