Aytu BioScience Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| AYTU Stock | USD 1.62 0.02 1.25% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aytu BioScience on the next trading day is expected to be 1.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.72. Aytu Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Aytu BioScience Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aytu BioScience on the next trading day is expected to be 1.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aytu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aytu BioScience's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aytu BioScience Stock Forecast Pattern
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Aytu BioScience Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aytu BioScience's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aytu BioScience's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.05, respectively. We have considered Aytu BioScience's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aytu BioScience stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aytu BioScience stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.7879 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0197 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0631 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0303 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.72 |
Predictive Modules for Aytu BioScience
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aytu BioScience. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aytu BioScience's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Aytu BioScience
For every potential investor in Aytu, whether a beginner or expert, Aytu BioScience's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aytu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aytu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aytu BioScience's price trends.View Aytu BioScience Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aytu BioScience Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aytu BioScience's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aytu BioScience's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Aytu BioScience Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aytu BioScience stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aytu BioScience shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aytu BioScience stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aytu BioScience entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aytu BioScience Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aytu BioScience's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aytu BioScience's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aytu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.36 | |||
| Variance | 18.97 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Aytu Stock Analysis
When running Aytu BioScience's price analysis, check to measure Aytu BioScience's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aytu BioScience is operating at the current time. Most of Aytu BioScience's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aytu BioScience's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aytu BioScience's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aytu BioScience to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.