Swedish Orphan Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

B6E Stock  EUR 26.44  0.04  0.15%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Swedish Orphan Biovitrum on the next trading day is expected to be 24.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.41. Swedish Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Swedish Orphan's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Swedish Orphan is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Swedish Orphan Biovitrum value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Swedish Orphan Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Swedish Orphan Biovitrum on the next trading day is expected to be 24.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Swedish Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Swedish Orphan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Swedish Orphan Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Swedish OrphanSwedish Orphan Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Swedish Orphan Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Swedish Orphan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Swedish Orphan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.55 and 27.12, respectively. We have considered Swedish Orphan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.44
24.84
Expected Value
27.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Swedish Orphan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Swedish Orphan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1557
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4822
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0178
SAESum of the absolute errors29.4112
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Swedish Orphan Biovitrum. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Swedish Orphan. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Swedish Orphan

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swedish Orphan Biovitrum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.2026.4828.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.3622.6429.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.2727.1327.99
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Swedish Orphan

For every potential investor in Swedish, whether a beginner or expert, Swedish Orphan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Swedish Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Swedish. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Swedish Orphan's price trends.

Swedish Orphan Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Swedish Orphan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Swedish Orphan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Swedish Orphan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Swedish Orphan's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Swedish Orphan's current price.

Swedish Orphan Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Swedish Orphan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Swedish Orphan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Swedish Orphan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Swedish Orphan Biovitrum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Swedish Orphan Risk Indicators

The analysis of Swedish Orphan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Swedish Orphan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting swedish stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Swedish Stock

Swedish Orphan financial ratios help investors to determine whether Swedish Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Swedish with respect to the benefits of owning Swedish Orphan security.