Bank of America Preferred Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BAC-PO Preferred Stock  USD 19.51  0.01  0.05%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of America on the next trading day is expected to be 19.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.43. Bank Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Bank of America works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Bank of America Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of America on the next trading day is expected to be 19.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.43.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of America's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank of America Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bank of AmericaBank of America Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bank of America Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank of America's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank of America's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.72 and 20.30, respectively. We have considered Bank of America's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.51
19.51
Expected Value
20.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of America preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of America preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0189
MADMean absolute deviation0.1259
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0062
SAESum of the absolute errors7.4271
When Bank of America prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Bank of America trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Bank of America observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bank of America

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.7219.5120.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.5621.8522.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.3319.4819.62
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank of America

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank of America's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank of America's price trends.

Bank of America Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank of America preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank of America could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank of America by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank of America Technical and Predictive Analytics

The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank of America's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank of America's current price.

Bank of America Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of America preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of America shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of America preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank of America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank of America Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank of America's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of America's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Bank of America

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bank of America position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bank of America will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bank Preferred Stock

  0.76TD Toronto Dominion BankPairCorr

Moving against Bank Preferred Stock

  0.85JPM JPMorgan Chase Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 PairCorr
  0.84BAC Bank of America Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 PairCorr
  0.78NWG Natwest Group PLCPairCorr
  0.77C Citigroup Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 PairCorr
  0.76CM Canadian Imperial BankPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bank of America could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bank of America when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bank of America - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bank of America to buy it.
The correlation of Bank of America is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bank of America moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bank of America moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bank of America can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Bank Preferred Stock

Bank of America financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank of America security.