BBVA Banco Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BBAR Stock  USD 16.62  0.80  4.59%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of BBVA Banco Frances on the next trading day is expected to be 16.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.62. BBVA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although BBVA Banco's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of BBVA Banco's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of BBVA Banco fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, BBVA Banco's Receivables Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 12/10/2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.33, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 0.66. . As of 12/10/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 739.8 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 25.6 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 BBVA Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast BBVA Banco's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in BBVA Banco's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for BBVA Banco stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current BBVA Banco's open interest, investors have to compare it to BBVA Banco's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of BBVA Banco is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in BBVA. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

BBVA Banco Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the BBVA Banco's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1993-06-30
Previous Quarter
1.5 T
Current Value
T
Quarterly Volatility
357.6 B
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for BBVA Banco is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of BBVA Banco Frances value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

BBVA Banco Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of BBVA Banco Frances on the next trading day is expected to be 16.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BBVA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BBVA Banco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BBVA Banco Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest BBVA BancoBBVA Banco Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

BBVA Banco Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BBVA Banco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BBVA Banco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.42 and 20.14, respectively. We have considered BBVA Banco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.62
16.78
Expected Value
20.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BBVA Banco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BBVA Banco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7273
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4199
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0316
SAESum of the absolute errors25.6164
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of BBVA Banco Frances. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict BBVA Banco. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for BBVA Banco

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BBVA Banco Frances. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.4117.7721.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.4510.8019.16
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.0516.8717.69
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
5.285.806.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BBVA Banco. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BBVA Banco's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BBVA Banco's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in BBVA Banco Frances.

Other Forecasting Options for BBVA Banco

For every potential investor in BBVA, whether a beginner or expert, BBVA Banco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BBVA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BBVA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BBVA Banco's price trends.

BBVA Banco Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BBVA Banco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BBVA Banco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BBVA Banco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BBVA Banco Frances Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BBVA Banco's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BBVA Banco's current price.

BBVA Banco Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BBVA Banco stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BBVA Banco shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BBVA Banco stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BBVA Banco Frances entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BBVA Banco Risk Indicators

The analysis of BBVA Banco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BBVA Banco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bbva stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with BBVA Banco

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BBVA Banco position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BBVA Banco will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with BBVA Stock

  0.93AX Axos FinancialPairCorr
  0.93BY Byline Bancorp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 PairCorr

Moving against BBVA Stock

  0.87CFG-PE Citizens FinancialPairCorr
  0.81TFC-PO Truist FinancialPairCorr
  0.81TFC-PR Truist FinancialPairCorr
  0.44WF Woori Financial GroupPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to BBVA Banco could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BBVA Banco when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BBVA Banco - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BBVA Banco Frances to buy it.
The correlation of BBVA Banco is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BBVA Banco moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BBVA Banco Frances moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BBVA Banco can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for BBVA Stock Analysis

When running BBVA Banco's price analysis, check to measure BBVA Banco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BBVA Banco is operating at the current time. Most of BBVA Banco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BBVA Banco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BBVA Banco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BBVA Banco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.