Bankinter Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

BKNIY Stock  USD 8.15  0.17  2.13%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bankinter SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 8.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.38. Bankinter Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Bankinter is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bankinter SA ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bankinter Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bankinter SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 8.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bankinter Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bankinter's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bankinter Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Bankinter Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bankinter's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bankinter's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.26 and 10.84, respectively. We have considered Bankinter's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.15
8.05
Expected Value
10.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bankinter pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bankinter pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8574
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1701
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0203
SAESum of the absolute errors10.3776
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bankinter SA ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bankinter. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bankinter

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bankinter SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.368.1510.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.146.939.72
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bankinter

For every potential investor in Bankinter, whether a beginner or expert, Bankinter's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bankinter Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bankinter. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bankinter's price trends.

Bankinter Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bankinter pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bankinter could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bankinter by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bankinter SA ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bankinter's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bankinter's current price.

Bankinter Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bankinter pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bankinter shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bankinter pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Bankinter SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bankinter Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bankinter's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bankinter's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bankinter pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Bankinter Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Bankinter's price analysis, check to measure Bankinter's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bankinter is operating at the current time. Most of Bankinter's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bankinter's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bankinter's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bankinter to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.