Benchmark Bankshares Pink Sheet Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

BMBN Stock  USD 26.00  0.99  3.96%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Benchmark Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 26.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.71. Benchmark Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Benchmark Bankshares is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Benchmark Bankshares 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Benchmark Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 26.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Benchmark Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Benchmark Bankshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Benchmark Bankshares Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Benchmark Bankshares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Benchmark Bankshares' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Benchmark Bankshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.62 and 27.38, respectively. We have considered Benchmark Bankshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.00
26.00
Expected Value
27.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Benchmark Bankshares pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Benchmark Bankshares pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.1709
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2039
MADMean absolute deviation0.2932
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0123
SAESum of the absolute errors16.715
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Benchmark Bankshares. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Benchmark Bankshares and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Benchmark Bankshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Benchmark Bankshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.6226.0027.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.4622.8428.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Benchmark Bankshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Benchmark Bankshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Benchmark Bankshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Benchmark Bankshares.

Other Forecasting Options for Benchmark Bankshares

For every potential investor in Benchmark, whether a beginner or expert, Benchmark Bankshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Benchmark Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Benchmark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Benchmark Bankshares' price trends.

Benchmark Bankshares Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Benchmark Bankshares pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Benchmark Bankshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Benchmark Bankshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Benchmark Bankshares Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Benchmark Bankshares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Benchmark Bankshares' current price.

Benchmark Bankshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Benchmark Bankshares pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Benchmark Bankshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Benchmark Bankshares pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Benchmark Bankshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Benchmark Bankshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of Benchmark Bankshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Benchmark Bankshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting benchmark pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Benchmark Bankshares

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Benchmark Bankshares position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Benchmark Bankshares will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Benchmark Pink Sheet

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Moving against Benchmark Pink Sheet

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Benchmark Bankshares could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Benchmark Bankshares when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Benchmark Bankshares - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Benchmark Bankshares to buy it.
The correlation of Benchmark Bankshares is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Benchmark Bankshares moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Benchmark Bankshares moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Benchmark Bankshares can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Benchmark Pink Sheet

Benchmark Bankshares financial ratios help investors to determine whether Benchmark Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Benchmark with respect to the benefits of owning Benchmark Bankshares security.