Baytex Energy Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BTE Stock | CAD 3.98 0.02 0.50% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Baytex Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.12. Baytex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Baytex Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Baytex Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Baytex Energy fundamentals over time.
Baytex |
Baytex Energy Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Baytex Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Baytex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Baytex Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Baytex Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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Baytex Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Baytex Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Baytex Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.59 and 6.33, respectively. We have considered Baytex Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Baytex Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Baytex Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0107 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0854 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0206 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.123 |
Predictive Modules for Baytex Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baytex Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Baytex Energy
For every potential investor in Baytex, whether a beginner or expert, Baytex Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Baytex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Baytex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Baytex Energy's price trends.Baytex Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Baytex Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Baytex Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Baytex Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Baytex Energy Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Baytex Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Baytex Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Baytex Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Baytex Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Baytex Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Baytex Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Baytex Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Baytex Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Baytex Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Baytex Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting baytex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
When determining whether Baytex Energy Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Baytex Energy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Baytex Energy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Baytex Stock, refer to the following important reports: Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baytex Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.