BW LPG Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BWLPG Stock  NOK 131.20  2.10  1.58%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BW LPG on the next trading day is expected to be 129.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.23. BWLPG Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for BW LPG works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

BW LPG Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BW LPG on the next trading day is expected to be 129.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.92, mean absolute percentage error of 14.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BWLPG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BW LPG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BW LPG Stock Forecast Pattern

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BW LPG Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BW LPG's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BW LPG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 127.73 and 132.26, respectively. We have considered BW LPG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
131.20
127.73
Downside
129.99
Expected Value
132.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BW LPG stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BW LPG stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.6026
MADMean absolute deviation2.9192
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0194
SAESum of the absolute errors172.2349
When BW LPG prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any BW LPG trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent BW LPG observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for BW LPG

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BW LPG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
128.94131.20133.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
115.99118.25144.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
132.44139.01145.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BW LPG. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BW LPG's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BW LPG's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in BW LPG.

Other Forecasting Options for BW LPG

For every potential investor in BWLPG, whether a beginner or expert, BW LPG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BWLPG Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BWLPG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BW LPG's price trends.

BW LPG Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BW LPG stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BW LPG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BW LPG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BW LPG Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BW LPG's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BW LPG's current price.

BW LPG Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BW LPG stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BW LPG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BW LPG stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BW LPG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BW LPG Risk Indicators

The analysis of BW LPG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BW LPG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bwlpg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in BWLPG Stock

BW LPG financial ratios help investors to determine whether BWLPG Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in BWLPG with respect to the benefits of owning BW LPG security.