China Automotive Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

CAAS Stock  USD 3.96  0.17  4.12%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of China Automotive Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 3.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.67. China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.80 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 3.87 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 30.3 M in 2024, whereas Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop slightly above 11.9 M in 2024.
A four-period moving average forecast model for China Automotive Systems is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

China Automotive 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of China Automotive Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 3.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern

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China Automotive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.57 and 7.39, respectively. We have considered China Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.96
3.98
Expected Value
7.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.0737
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.032
MADMean absolute deviation0.1169
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0271
SAESum of the absolute errors6.665
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of China Automotive. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for China Automotive Systems and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for China Automotive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Automotive Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.573.987.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.484.898.30
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.837.508.33
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Automotive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Automotive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Automotive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Automotive Systems.

Other Forecasting Options for China Automotive

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Automotive's price trends.

China Automotive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Automotive Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Automotive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Automotive's current price.

China Automotive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Automotive Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

China Automotive Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis

When running China Automotive's price analysis, check to measure China Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of China Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.