Columbia Acorn Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CAEAX Fund  USD 25.62  0.11  0.43%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Columbia Acorn European on the next trading day is expected to be 25.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.53. Columbia Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Columbia Acorn works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Columbia Acorn Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Columbia Acorn European on the next trading day is expected to be 25.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Columbia Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Columbia Acorn's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Columbia Acorn Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Columbia AcornColumbia Acorn Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Columbia Acorn Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Columbia Acorn's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Columbia Acorn's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.77 and 26.70, respectively. We have considered Columbia Acorn's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.62
25.74
Expected Value
26.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Columbia Acorn mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Columbia Acorn mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0173
MADMean absolute deviation0.2124
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0081
SAESum of the absolute errors12.5306
When Columbia Acorn European prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Columbia Acorn European trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Columbia Acorn observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Columbia Acorn

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Columbia Acorn European. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.6625.6226.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.8225.7826.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Columbia Acorn. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Columbia Acorn's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Columbia Acorn's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Columbia Acorn European.

Other Forecasting Options for Columbia Acorn

For every potential investor in Columbia, whether a beginner or expert, Columbia Acorn's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Columbia Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Columbia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Columbia Acorn's price trends.

Columbia Acorn Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Columbia Acorn mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Columbia Acorn could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Columbia Acorn by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Columbia Acorn European Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Columbia Acorn's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Columbia Acorn's current price.

Columbia Acorn Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Columbia Acorn mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Columbia Acorn shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Columbia Acorn mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Columbia Acorn European entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Columbia Acorn Risk Indicators

The analysis of Columbia Acorn's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Columbia Acorn's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting columbia mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Columbia Mutual Fund

Columbia Acorn financial ratios help investors to determine whether Columbia Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Columbia with respect to the benefits of owning Columbia Acorn security.
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