Chunghwa Telecom Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CHWD Stock | EUR 36.00 0.40 1.10% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chunghwa Telecom Co on the next trading day is expected to be 36.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.52. Chunghwa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Chunghwa Telecom's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Chunghwa |
Chunghwa Telecom Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chunghwa Telecom Co on the next trading day is expected to be 36.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chunghwa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chunghwa Telecom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chunghwa Telecom Stock Forecast Pattern
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Chunghwa Telecom Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chunghwa Telecom's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chunghwa Telecom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.97 and 37.07, respectively. We have considered Chunghwa Telecom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chunghwa Telecom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chunghwa Telecom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0323 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.28 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.5208 |
Predictive Modules for Chunghwa Telecom
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chunghwa Telecom. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chunghwa Telecom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Chunghwa Telecom
For every potential investor in Chunghwa, whether a beginner or expert, Chunghwa Telecom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chunghwa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chunghwa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chunghwa Telecom's price trends.Chunghwa Telecom Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chunghwa Telecom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chunghwa Telecom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chunghwa Telecom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chunghwa Telecom Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Chunghwa Telecom's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Chunghwa Telecom's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chunghwa Telecom Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chunghwa Telecom stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chunghwa Telecom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chunghwa Telecom stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chunghwa Telecom Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 36.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 36.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.40) |
Chunghwa Telecom Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chunghwa Telecom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chunghwa Telecom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chunghwa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7118 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9437 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8906 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Chunghwa Stock
When determining whether Chunghwa Telecom is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Chunghwa Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Chunghwa Telecom Co Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Chunghwa Telecom Co Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chunghwa Telecom to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.