Cummins Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CMI Stock | USD 370.15 7.57 2.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cummins on the next trading day is expected to be 370.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 214.71. Cummins Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cummins' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Cummins |
Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Cummins Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cummins' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cummins' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cummins stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cummins' open interest, investors have to compare it to Cummins' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cummins is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cummins. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Cummins Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cummins on the next trading day is expected to be 370.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.58, mean absolute percentage error of 29.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 214.71.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cummins Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cummins' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cummins Stock Forecast Pattern
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Cummins Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cummins' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cummins' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 368.58 and 371.72, respectively. We have considered Cummins' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cummins stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cummins stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6526 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.1675 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5785 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0104 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 214.71 |
Predictive Modules for Cummins
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cummins. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Cummins
For every potential investor in Cummins, whether a beginner or expert, Cummins' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cummins Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cummins. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cummins' price trends.Cummins Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cummins stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cummins could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cummins by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cummins Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cummins' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cummins' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Cummins Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cummins stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cummins shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cummins stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cummins entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cummins Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cummins' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cummins' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cummins stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4532 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7156 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2054 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Cummins offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cummins' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cummins Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cummins Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cummins to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Cummins Stock please use our How to Invest in Cummins guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cummins. If investors know Cummins will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cummins listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.277 | Dividend Share 6.86 | Earnings Share 15.26 | Revenue Per Share 245.499 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.003 |
The market value of Cummins is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cummins that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cummins' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cummins' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cummins' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cummins' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cummins' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cummins is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cummins' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.