Columbia Select Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CSERX Fund  USD 38.44  0.00  0.00%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Columbia Select Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 38.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.44. Columbia Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Columbia Select works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Columbia Select Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Columbia Select Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 38.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Columbia Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Columbia Select's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Columbia Select Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Columbia SelectColumbia Select Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Columbia Select Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Columbia Select's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Columbia Select's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.73 and 39.09, respectively. We have considered Columbia Select's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.44
38.41
Expected Value
39.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Columbia Select mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Columbia Select mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.062
MADMean absolute deviation0.1939
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0052
SAESum of the absolute errors11.44
When Columbia Select Large Cap prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Columbia Select Large Cap trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Columbia Select observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Columbia Select

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Columbia Select Large. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.7638.4439.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.7735.4542.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37.3037.7638.22
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Columbia Select

For every potential investor in Columbia, whether a beginner or expert, Columbia Select's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Columbia Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Columbia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Columbia Select's price trends.

Columbia Select Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Columbia Select mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Columbia Select could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Columbia Select by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Columbia Select Large Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Columbia Select's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Columbia Select's current price.

Columbia Select Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Columbia Select mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Columbia Select shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Columbia Select mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Columbia Select Large Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Columbia Select Risk Indicators

The analysis of Columbia Select's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Columbia Select's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting columbia mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Columbia Mutual Fund

Columbia Select financial ratios help investors to determine whether Columbia Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Columbia with respect to the benefits of owning Columbia Select security.
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