Calvert Ultra-short Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

CULRX Fund  USD 9.90  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Calvert Ultra Short Duration on the next trading day is expected to be 9.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.52. Calvert Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Calvert Ultra-short price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Calvert Ultra-short Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Calvert Ultra Short Duration on the next trading day is expected to be 9.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.52.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Ultra-short's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Calvert Ultra-short Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Calvert Ultra-short Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Calvert Ultra-short's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Calvert Ultra-short's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.83 and 9.99, respectively. We have considered Calvert Ultra-short's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.90
9.91
Expected Value
9.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Ultra-short mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Ultra-short mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.0948
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0085
MAPEMean absolute percentage error9.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.5202
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Calvert Ultra Short Duration historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Calvert Ultra-short

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Calvert Ultra Short. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.9110.2910.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.869.9410.02
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Ultra-short

For every potential investor in Calvert, whether a beginner or expert, Calvert Ultra-short's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Calvert Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Calvert. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Calvert Ultra-short's price trends.

Calvert Ultra-short Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Calvert Ultra-short mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Calvert Ultra-short could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Calvert Ultra-short by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Calvert Ultra Short Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Calvert Ultra-short's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Calvert Ultra-short's current price.

Calvert Ultra-short Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Calvert Ultra-short mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Calvert Ultra-short shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Calvert Ultra-short mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Calvert Ultra Short Duration entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Calvert Ultra-short Risk Indicators

The analysis of Calvert Ultra-short's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Calvert Ultra-short's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting calvert mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Calvert Mutual Fund

Calvert Ultra-short financial ratios help investors to determine whether Calvert Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Calvert with respect to the benefits of owning Calvert Ultra-short security.
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