CEL SCI Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CVM Stock | USD 0.60 0.10 14.29% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CEL SCI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.93. CEL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although CEL SCI's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CEL SCI's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CEL SCI fundamentals over time.
CEL |
CEL SCI Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the CEL SCI's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1986-09-30 | Previous Quarter 5.3 M | Current Value 384.7 K | Quarterly Volatility 8.7 M |
CEL SCI Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CEL SCI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CEL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CEL SCI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CEL SCI Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CEL SCI | CEL SCI Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CEL SCI Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CEL SCI's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CEL SCI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.09, respectively. We have considered CEL SCI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CEL SCI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CEL SCI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5456 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0311 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0453 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.9265 |
Predictive Modules for CEL SCI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CEL SCI Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CEL SCI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for CEL SCI
For every potential investor in CEL, whether a beginner or expert, CEL SCI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CEL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CEL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CEL SCI's price trends.CEL SCI Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CEL SCI stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CEL SCI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CEL SCI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CEL SCI Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CEL SCI's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CEL SCI's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CEL SCI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CEL SCI stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CEL SCI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CEL SCI stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CEL SCI Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 245009.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.77) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.86 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.66 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
CEL SCI Risk Indicators
The analysis of CEL SCI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CEL SCI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.4 | |||
| Variance | 54.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CEL SCI. If investors know CEL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CEL SCI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.52) | Revenue Per Share 0.001 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.63) | Return On Assets (0.61) | Return On Equity (2.50) |
The market value of CEL SCI Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CEL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CEL SCI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CEL SCI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CEL SCI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CEL SCI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CEL SCI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CEL SCI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CEL SCI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.