Citizens Financial Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

CZFS Stock  USD 69.39  0.67  0.96%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Citizens Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 69.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 102.79. Citizens Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Receivables Turnover is likely to drop to 6.63 in 2024. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop to 1.81 in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 35.1 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 4.1 M in 2024.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Citizens Financial Services is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Citizens Financial 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Citizens Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 69.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80, mean absolute percentage error of 7.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 102.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citizens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citizens Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Citizens Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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Citizens Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Citizens Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citizens Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.30 and 73.52, respectively. We have considered Citizens Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
69.39
69.91
Expected Value
73.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citizens Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citizens Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7354
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.6915
MADMean absolute deviation1.8034
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0288
SAESum of the absolute errors102.7925
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Citizens Financial. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Citizens Financial Services and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Citizens Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citizens Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
66.0369.6773.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
62.4573.1376.77
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
61.7668.8875.99
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
68.2575.0083.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Citizens Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Citizens Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Citizens Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Citizens Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Citizens Financial

For every potential investor in Citizens, whether a beginner or expert, Citizens Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citizens Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citizens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citizens Financial's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Citizens Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Citizens Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Citizens Financial's current price.

Citizens Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citizens Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citizens Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citizens Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Citizens Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Citizens Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Citizens Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citizens Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citizens stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Citizens Stock Analysis

When running Citizens Financial's price analysis, check to measure Citizens Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Citizens Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Citizens Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Citizens Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Citizens Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Citizens Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.