Dropbox Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

DBX Stock  USD 29.77  0.68  2.23%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Dropbox on the next trading day is expected to be 29.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.51. Dropbox Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Dropbox's Payables Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 5.33 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 31.30 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 425.6 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 668 M in 2024.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Dropbox is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Dropbox 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Dropbox on the next trading day is expected to be 29.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dropbox Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dropbox's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dropbox Stock Forecast Pattern

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Dropbox Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dropbox's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dropbox's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.10 and 31.31, respectively. We have considered Dropbox's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
29.77
29.70
Expected Value
31.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dropbox stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dropbox stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.7118
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2241
MADMean absolute deviation0.4475
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors25.505
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Dropbox. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Dropbox and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Dropbox

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dropbox. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.7230.3331.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.0932.5834.19
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.1828.3430.50
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
28.3431.1434.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dropbox. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dropbox's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dropbox's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dropbox.

Other Forecasting Options for Dropbox

For every potential investor in Dropbox, whether a beginner or expert, Dropbox's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dropbox Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dropbox. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dropbox's price trends.

Dropbox Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dropbox stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dropbox could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dropbox by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dropbox Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dropbox's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dropbox's current price.

Dropbox Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dropbox stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dropbox shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dropbox stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dropbox entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dropbox Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dropbox's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dropbox's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dropbox stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Dropbox Stock Analysis

When running Dropbox's price analysis, check to measure Dropbox's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dropbox is operating at the current time. Most of Dropbox's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dropbox's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dropbox's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dropbox to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.