Dunham Focused Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DCFGX Fund  USD 40.35  0.43  1.08%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dunham Focused Large on the next trading day is expected to be 40.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.45. Dunham Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Dunham Focused - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Dunham Focused prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Dunham Focused price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Dunham Focused Large.

Dunham Focused Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dunham Focused Large on the next trading day is expected to be 40.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dunham Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dunham Focused's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dunham Focused Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Dunham Focused Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dunham Focused's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dunham Focused's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.32 and 41.52, respectively. We have considered Dunham Focused's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
40.35
40.42
Expected Value
41.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dunham Focused mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dunham Focused mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0161
MADMean absolute deviation0.3297
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0084
SAESum of the absolute errors19.45
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Dunham Focused observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Dunham Focused Large observations.

Predictive Modules for Dunham Focused

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dunham Focused Large. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
39.2540.3541.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.3242.0943.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dunham Focused. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dunham Focused's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dunham Focused's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dunham Focused Large.

Other Forecasting Options for Dunham Focused

For every potential investor in Dunham, whether a beginner or expert, Dunham Focused's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dunham Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dunham. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dunham Focused's price trends.

Dunham Focused Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dunham Focused mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dunham Focused could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dunham Focused by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dunham Focused Large Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dunham Focused's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dunham Focused's current price.

Dunham Focused Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dunham Focused mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dunham Focused shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dunham Focused mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Dunham Focused Large entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dunham Focused Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dunham Focused's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dunham Focused's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dunham mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Dunham Mutual Fund

Dunham Focused financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dunham Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dunham with respect to the benefits of owning Dunham Focused security.
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