Catalyst/millburn Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

DCXAX Fund  USD 9.57  0.04  0.42%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Catalystmillburn Dynamic Commodity on the next trading day is expected to be 9.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.34. Catalyst/millburn Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Catalystmillburn Dynamic Commodity is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Catalyst/millburn 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Catalystmillburn Dynamic Commodity on the next trading day is expected to be 9.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalyst/millburn Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalyst/millburn's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Catalyst/millburn Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Catalyst/millburn Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Catalyst/millburn's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catalyst/millburn's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.85 and 10.34, respectively. We have considered Catalyst/millburn's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.57
9.60
Expected Value
10.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalyst/millburn mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalyst/millburn mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.9796
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0107
MADMean absolute deviation0.0761
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0079
SAESum of the absolute errors4.335
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Catalyst/millburn. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Catalystmillburn Dynamic Commodity and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Catalyst/millburn

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalystmillburn Dyn. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.839.5710.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.839.5710.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Catalyst/millburn. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Catalyst/millburn's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Catalyst/millburn's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Catalystmillburn Dyn.

Other Forecasting Options for Catalyst/millburn

For every potential investor in Catalyst/millburn, whether a beginner or expert, Catalyst/millburn's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catalyst/millburn Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catalyst/millburn. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catalyst/millburn's price trends.

Catalyst/millburn Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalyst/millburn mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalyst/millburn could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalyst/millburn by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Catalystmillburn Dyn Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Catalyst/millburn's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Catalyst/millburn's current price.

Catalyst/millburn Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalyst/millburn mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalyst/millburn shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalyst/millburn mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalystmillburn Dynamic Commodity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Catalyst/millburn Risk Indicators

The analysis of Catalyst/millburn's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalyst/millburn's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catalyst/millburn mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Catalyst/millburn Mutual Fund

Catalyst/millburn financial ratios help investors to determine whether Catalyst/millburn Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Catalyst/millburn with respect to the benefits of owning Catalyst/millburn security.
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