Assured Guaranty Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DHU Stock | EUR 83.50 0.50 0.60% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Assured Guaranty on the next trading day is expected to be 83.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.90. Assured Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Assured Guaranty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Assured |
Assured Guaranty Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Assured Guaranty on the next trading day is expected to be 83.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78, mean absolute percentage error of 5.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Assured Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Assured Guaranty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Assured Guaranty Stock Forecast Pattern
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Assured Guaranty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Assured Guaranty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Assured Guaranty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.32 and 86.55, respectively. We have considered Assured Guaranty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Assured Guaranty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Assured Guaranty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9809 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4018 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7816 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0224 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 106.8963 |
Predictive Modules for Assured Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Assured Guaranty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Assured Guaranty
For every potential investor in Assured, whether a beginner or expert, Assured Guaranty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Assured Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Assured. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Assured Guaranty's price trends.Assured Guaranty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Assured Guaranty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Assured Guaranty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Assured Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Assured Guaranty Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Assured Guaranty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Assured Guaranty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Assured Guaranty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Assured Guaranty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Assured Guaranty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Assured Guaranty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Assured Guaranty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Assured Guaranty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Assured Guaranty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Assured Guaranty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting assured stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Variance | 9.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Assured Stock
When determining whether Assured Guaranty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Assured Guaranty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Assured Guaranty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Assured Guaranty Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Assured Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Assured Stock please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..