Direxion Daily Etf Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

DRIP Etf  USD 9.98  0.59  6.28%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Direxion Daily SP on the next trading day is expected to be 9.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.58. Direxion Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Direxion Daily SP is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Direxion Daily 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Direxion Daily SP on the next trading day is expected to be 9.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion Daily's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Direxion Daily Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest Direxion DailyDirexion Daily Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Direxion Daily Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Direxion Daily's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Direxion Daily's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.52 and 12.46, respectively. We have considered Direxion Daily's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.98
9.49
Expected Value
12.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion Daily etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion Daily etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.3424
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1163
MADMean absolute deviation0.3786
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0363
SAESum of the absolute errors21.5775
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Direxion Daily. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Direxion Daily SP and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Direxion Daily

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Daily SP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.239.2012.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.908.8711.84
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Direxion Daily

For every potential investor in Direxion, whether a beginner or expert, Direxion Daily's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Direxion Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Direxion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Direxion Daily's price trends.

Direxion Daily Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Direxion Daily etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Direxion Daily could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Direxion Daily by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Direxion Daily SP Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Direxion Daily's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Direxion Daily's current price.

Direxion Daily Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Direxion Daily etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Direxion Daily shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Direxion Daily etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Direxion Daily SP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Direxion Daily Risk Indicators

The analysis of Direxion Daily's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Direxion Daily's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting direxion etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Direxion Daily

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Direxion Daily position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Direxion Daily will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Direxion Etf

  0.79SH ProShares Short SP500PairCorr
  0.75PSQ ProShares Short QQQPairCorr
  0.8SPXU ProShares UltraPro ShortPairCorr
  0.79SDS ProShares UltraShortPairCorr
  0.79SPXS Direxion Daily SPPairCorr

Moving against Direxion Etf

  0.79BITX Volatility Shares Trust Buyout TrendPairCorr
  0.78CRPT First Trust SkyBridgePairCorr
  0.77DAPP VanEck Digital TransPairCorr
  0.73WGMI Valkyrie Bitcoin MinersPairCorr
  0.63NVDL GraniteShares 15x Long Buyout TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Direxion Daily could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Direxion Daily when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Direxion Daily - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Direxion Daily SP to buy it.
The correlation of Direxion Daily is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Direxion Daily moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Direxion Daily SP moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Direxion Daily can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Direxion Daily SP is a strong investment it is important to analyze Direxion Daily's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Direxion Daily's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Direxion Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Daily to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
The market value of Direxion Daily SP is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Daily's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Daily's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Daily's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Daily's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Daily's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Daily is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Daily's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.