New Oriental Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| E1DU34 Stock | BRL 23.68 0.90 3.95% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Oriental Education on the next trading day is expected to be 23.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.17. New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New Oriental stock prices and determine the direction of New Oriental Education's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of New Oriental's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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New Oriental Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Oriental Education on the next trading day is expected to be 23.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Oriental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Oriental Stock Forecast Pattern
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New Oriental Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting New Oriental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Oriental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.63 and 26.73, respectively. We have considered New Oriental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Oriental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Oriental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7192 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0212 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5195 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.17 |
Predictive Modules for New Oriental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Oriental Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for New Oriental
For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Oriental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Oriental's price trends.New Oriental Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Oriental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Oriental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Oriental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Oriental Education Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Oriental's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Oriental's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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New Oriental Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Oriental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Oriental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Oriental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Oriental Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
New Oriental Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Oriental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Oriental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Variance | 9.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in New Stock
When determining whether New Oriental Education is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if New Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about New Oriental Education Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about New Oriental Education Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Oriental to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.